While last month we reported on the typical Spring buoyancy of the housing market, as expected the latest Halifax House Price Index reveals the impact of the situation in the Middle East. The US-Israel war with Iran and the associated oil price rises has caused a knock-on effect in the housing market. It had previously been anticipated that mortgage rates would come down. The converse is now happening due to the impact on inflation. Consequently, the housing market is reacting to the uncertainty.

It is now a matter of waiting to see how the ceasefire develops, and how the global geopolitical situation plays out, as to whether the small dip in house prices is a small blip, or whether it causes ripples through the housing market for some time to come.

Read on to learn more about the latest data from the March Halifax House Price Index, and specifically what it means for buyers and sellers, most notably in Kent.

The Headline Stats and Facts

• Average selling price: £299,677, a dip of -0.5% on the month before, falling back below £300,000
• Property price increases: Annual rate of growth is +0.8%.
• Interest rates: 3.75% since 18 December.
• Inflation: 3%. It is likely this will go up at review due to the oil price situation.
• RICS net balance score: Having seen some resurgence in activity last month, the latest RICS data swings again, reflecting a cautious market amidst global insecurity. New buyer enquiries reduced from a net balance of -15% to -26%, and agreed sales dropped from -9% to -12%. New instructions remained in neutral territory to +2% from +0%.

Kent-Specific Stats

• Average time on market: Properties in Kent vary on how long they are on the market based on location and property type. As a guideline, the average time on market in Maidstone is currently 137 days which is the same as this time last year.
• Number of properties for sale: There are 24,588 properties for sale in Kent, continuing to push upwards as you’d expect at this time of year.
• Average selling price in Kent: £422,562 which is 2% down on last year, and 3% less than the 2022 peak.

What Does This Mean?

House prices will depend on how long current geopolitical pressures last, and on wider economic conditions such as unemployment in response to that. Mortgage rates remain crucial, especially for first-time buyers who are already juggling saving for a deposit with higher borrowing costs. Many will likely wait and monitor rate changes before committing to a purchase, with many now anticipating that interest rates won’t come down as expected due to likely upward inflation.

That said, the latest rise in mortgage rates has been relatively mild compared with the sharp spike after the 2022 mini-budget. Many homeowners are also protected by fixed-rate deals, which may help support house prices even if uncertainty slows activity in the short term.

So, for now, at a national level, it’s a case of wait and see while trusting in the resilience of the housing market overall.

What About Kent?

Kent, along with the rest of the South is sitting below the national trend of gradual property prices increases. The county has seen a 2% drop in prices over the past year. However, it was always anticipated that there would be some regional adjustments following the sharp rises during the pandemic years. Fundamentally, the Kent market remains broadly stable and robust.

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